Searching for a Right Back

Since the last blog I have listened to the @PureFitbaw podcast which features Ram Srnivas who works in player recruitment. He outlined a basic methodology around recruitment, the use of data and traditional scouting methods. I will look to apply this here (on a very basic level!)

Now Cadden has departed, Oxford are left with Sam Long. On the surface Long has different attributes to Cadden, however that doesn't diminish the impact Long could make (this will mainly look in League 1&2).

Firstly establishing Oxford's playing style.

(Some boring stuff: I normalised the team data for the individual metrics on a scale 0-1 - the deep purple = in a higher percentile compared to the other teams. For example, looking at the first 'Crosses P90' column, it is clear Rochdale are the lowest rank in the League. In comparison, Portsmouth are the highest.

In the PPDA (Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action) metric a lower rank = a high pressing team. Ipswich are the fore runners in this area allowing 6.39 passes before they perform a defensive action (tackle/interception/foul)).

League Team Playing Styles. Data: Wyscout

To specifically look at Oxford they tally 3rd for number of crosses at just over 19 P90. This is along with a high volume of dribbles, the fewest long balls and the highest passing rate. Add in the low PPDA score equating to a pressing team and decent shot volume and you build a picture of Oxford's playing style - fast possession based football relying on wide delivery whilst having a high pressing intensity when out of possession.

To group similar teams I find it handy to create a quick scatter. Using two key metrics, crosses and PPDA this is a pretty crude way of establishing teams with a similar playing style:

To Specifically look at Cadden so far this season:

The above is a simple percentile rank compared to other League One RB and LB. Once more deep purple = higher rank. For example, with 6.23 crosses P90 Cadden is in the top 10% for crossing volume. I first saw these via Ashwin raman and later Ram Srinivas who took them to new levels!

Anyway, interpreting the the rank chart Cadden has zero goal threat, however he sits in the top 10% for volume of passes, crosses and key passes (passes that lead to a shot), as a result, purely from looking at the attacking metrics, Cadden is one of the best creators in the league. Linking this in with Oxford's playing style, Cadden accounts for a third of the teams crosses per match, is the 4th most prolific passer behind Dickie, Brannagan, and Mousinho whilst on 0.72 key passes P90, exceeding the rest of the squad with Henry in second on 0.64. Cadden, from an attacking perspective was integral to Oxford.

The next logical step, now we have a Cadden sized hole is to see if we can fill the spot from within. Sam Long. 

Errrrrrr, what? Sam Long sits in the top 20% of LB/RB across all metrics aside from Key passes. Pretty wild. But before we get excited, this is off 286 league minutes...probably can't make huge conclusions from such a small sample. Lets take a look at the 1598 minutes from last season:

Ok, that maybe feels a little closer to what we expect. Still plenty of caveats including the fact that Oxford spent a majority of last season as a team trying to avoid relegation. The above doesn't write Long off, just highlights that his strengths are different to Cadden who's skill set has married perfectly with Oxford's currently playing style. 

To take this a step further and assess possible options in League One and Two, I have created a few radars. Made popular by StatsBomb these provide a quick overview of a player and their attributes. There are limitations around data presented in this way, however....

Lewie Coyle on loan from Leeds at Fleetwood has an almost identical radar to Cadden whilst being slightly stronger defensively. At 24 he has had a career of loans so far at Fleetwood and Harrogate amassing 9000 minutes in League 1. Looking to be sold this January he would be an ideal (statistically!) Cadden replacement.

Luther Wildin. In his second season in the League 2 and a graceful ball carrier that gets into good crossing positions. He is strong defensively whilst providing in the attack - lacks some end product (xA and shot assists) but plenty to work with.



Leon Davies. Has played 600 minutes in League 2 so far this season so can't read too much into the radar, however he has crossing ability and appears handy on the ball. Would probably be a Long back-up, however he would offer something different.



This is a quick look both into team playing style and how player recruitment can be led, top down. By looking at the data you get an initial filter - the next step would be to watch video, seeing if the eye test matches the numbers.